Jurnal Internasional Penilaian risiko probabilistik dampak ekonomi nasional dari manajemen kekeringan regulasi pada pertanian irigasi – Salmoral – – Masa Depan Bumi
The frequency and intensity of drought is expected to increase in many regions around the world, and water shortages can become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, abstraction of water for irrigation can be reduced compulsorily by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a new approach to probabilistic risk assessment of the potential for future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with applications to England and Wales. Hydro-meteorological variability is considered in the synthetic dataset of daily rainfall and river flow for the initial period (1977–2004), and for near future projections (2022-2049) and long-term futures (2072-2099). Probability, magnitude and timing of abstraction restrictions are obtained by applying triggers for rainfall and river flow in 129 catchments. Economic loss risk at the level of catch is then obtained from the occurrence of restrictions on abstraction combined with specific economic losses of plants that are spatially distributed. The results show that restrictions will become more severe, more frequent and longer in the future. The highest economic risk is projected where drought-sensitive crops with high financial value are concentrated in water catchments with increasingly erratic water supplies. This study highlights the significant economic losses associated with limiting mandatory drought experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental and irrigation regulators to jointly manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations.