Artikel Jurnal Internasional Analisis Industri Penciptaan Perdagangan dan Pengalihan Efek NAFTA

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Artikel Jurnal Internasional Analisis Industri Penciptaan Perdagangan dan Pengalihan Efek NAFTA

International Journal Article

 Industrial Analysis of Trade Creation and Transfer of NAFTA Effects 
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The welfare effects of economic integration are often studied with aggregate data, and thus provide limited insight into the effects of trade pacts on economic agents individuals in the free trade area. In this study three-digit disaggregated commodity / industry data grouped according to the Standard International Trade Classification was used to empirically assess the economic benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The elasticity of import demand from the dynamic demand model is used to estimate both trade creation and trade transfer effects to remove all tariff barriers between NAFTA countries - the US, Canada and Mexico. The results show that US imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Canada and most US imports from Mexico are more sensitive to domestic prices than bilateral import prices. Furthermore, the results show that the US will benefit the most from the initial trading effects of NAFTA, while Mexico will get the least profit. In particular, US exporters of automatic data processing equipment, and paper pulp and waste products will benefit the most from increasing trade with NAFTA countries. Exporter of Mexican crude oil, and vegetables and fresh produce; and Canadian exporters of paper and paperboard products will be the recipients of the most NAFTA benefits among exporters in these countries. (JEL Classification: F1, F2)

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